% chance of the different outcomes?

-black hole

-fall in black hole

-find fleet

-find pirate

-find the different reward items

-etc

the requirements of the expedition fleet to meet the different reward/risk requirements? (fleet size, composition, duration in expedition, etc)

I feel the purpose of the expedition in this regards is kind of like going to a casino and gambling.

knowing the odds does not change the outcome. but you do at least know the odds before going into it.

5 July 2017 19:02

Expeditions are dangers, many fleets have been lost in action stopped their development.

5 July 2017 20:54

Analogy with the casino: you do not have information about chance to win in roulette.

6 July 2017 09:50

**Sunny**,

This analogy is wrong, Sunny!

Study the work of this guy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss

and you know your chances in Roulette: in the end - the bank always wins!

6 July 2017 12:30

Anyway, we don't calculate chances in percent. Pure china random.

6 July 2017 12:42

if it's programmed to be random. its still not "random" in the true sense of the word.

The code has a % chance based on various factors.

If you randomize 1 to 100. with no other factors.. its a 1% chance.

Now with each occurrence being independent of the other it would be calculated like so...

1-(chance to fail/100)^number of attempts = % chance of a given outcome.

For example you want to do experimental 20.

I'll do it roughly.. as i don't particularly care to devote the extra brain power to do the true solution.

100% → 100% → 100% → 100% → 98% → 96% → 94% → 92% → 90% → 88% → 86% → 84% → 82% → 80% → 78% → 76% → 74% → 72% → 70% → 68%

We will multiply each of these % values together getting a result of... 4.5909135%

1 - 4.5909135% = 0.954090865

now lets say we are willing to do 20 attempts. going from level 4 -> 20 (starting at level 4 as 0-4 is 100%)

1-(0.954090865)^20 = 60.9% chance that 1 of the 20 attempts will succeed in reaching level 20.

yes i understand that each individual attempt at a given level is an individual independent event... so you could get into being more precise with the calculation... but this is just quick simple math.

6 July 2017 13:40

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