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Information Request - Expedition

Post  Post #1 
Reputation 7
Group toss 9 7 30 Messages 23
Is it possible to get a release of information regarding expedition??

% chance of the different outcomes?
-black hole
-fall in black hole
-find fleet
-find pirate
-find the different reward items
-etc

the requirements of the expedition fleet to meet the different reward/risk requirements? (fleet size, composition, duration in expedition, etc)


I feel the purpose of the expedition in this regards is kind of like going to a casino and gambling.
knowing the odds does not change the outcome. but you do at least know the odds before going into it.
5 July 2017 19:02
5 July 2017 19:02
Post  Post #2 
Group guest
Expeditions are dangers, many fleets have been lost in action stopped their development.
5 July 2017 20:54
5 July 2017 20:54
Post  Post #3 
Reputation 639
Group Terminator 62 23 46 Messages 4087
This information is not public.

Analogy with the casino: you do not have information about chance to win in roulette.
6 July 2017 09:50
6 July 2017 09:50
Post  Post #4 
Reputation 10
Group toss Alliance United Nations 39 12 43 Points 1 404 669 Messages 9
Sunny

This analogy is wrong, Sunny!

Study the work of this guy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss

and you know your chances in Roulette:  in the end - the bank always wins!
6 July 2017 12:30
6 July 2017 12:30
Post  Post #5 
Reputation 639
Group Terminator 62 23 46 Messages 4087
Anyway, we don't calculate chances in percent. Pure china random.
6 July 2017 12:42
6 July 2017 12:42
Post  Post #6 
Reputation 7
Group toss 9 7 30 Messages 23
Nothing is pure random. Absolutely nothing. Given enough data anything can be calculated. Even things that appear random.

if it's programmed to be random. its still not "random" in the true sense of the word.
The code has a % chance based on various factors. 

If you randomize 1 to 100. with no other factors.. its a 1% chance. 
Now with each occurrence being independent of the other it would be calculated like so...
1-(chance to fail/100)^number of attempts = % chance of a given outcome.

For example you want to do experimental 20.
I'll do it roughly.. as i don't particularly care to devote the extra brain power to do the true solution.
 
100% → 100% → 100% → 100% → 98% → 96% → 94% → 92% → 90% → 88% → 86% → 84% → 82% → 80% → 78% → 76% → 74% → 72% → 70% → 68%
 We will multiply each of these % values together getting a result of... 4.5909135%


1 - 4.5909135% = 0.954090865

now lets say we are willing to do 20 attempts. going from level 4 -> 20 (starting at level 4 as 0-4 is 100%)
 
 
1-(0.954090865)^20 = 60.9% chance that 1 of the 20 attempts will succeed in reaching level 20. 

yes i understand that each individual attempt at a given level is an individual independent event... so you could get into being more precise with the calculation... but this is just quick simple math. 
 
6 July 2017 13:40
6 July 2017 13:40

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