Information Request - Expedition

Сообщение  Сообщение #1 
Репутация 7
Группа toss 9 7 30 Сообщений 23
Is it possible to get a release of information regarding expedition??

% chance of the different outcomes?
-black hole
-fall in black hole
-find fleet
-find pirate
-find the different reward items
-etc

the requirements of the expedition fleet to meet the different reward/risk requirements? (fleet size, composition, duration in expedition, etc)


I feel the purpose of the expedition in this regards is kind of like going to a casino and gambling.
knowing the odds does not change the outcome. but you do at least know the odds before going into it.
5 Июля 2017 19:02:02
5 Июля 2017 19:02:02
Сообщение  Сообщение #2 
Группа guest
Expeditions are dangers, many fleets have been lost in action stopped their development.
5 Июля 2017 20:54:39
5 Июля 2017 20:54:39
Сообщение  Сообщение #3 
Репутация 639
Группа humans 62 23 46 Сообщений 4086
This information is not public.

Analogy with the casino: you do not have information about chance to win in roulette.
6 Июля 2017 09:50:22
6 Июля 2017 09:50:22
Сообщение  Сообщение #4 
Репутация 10
Группа toss Альянс United Nations 43 15 45 Очков 2 501 925 Сообщений 9
Sunny

This analogy is wrong, Sunny!

Study the work of this guy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss

and you know your chances in Roulette:  in the end - the bank always wins!
6 Июля 2017 12:30:11
6 Июля 2017 12:30:11
Сообщение  Сообщение #5 
Репутация 639
Группа humans 62 23 46 Сообщений 4086
Anyway, we don't calculate chances in percent. Pure china random.
6 Июля 2017 12:42:28
6 Июля 2017 12:42:28
Сообщение  Сообщение #6 
Репутация 7
Группа toss 9 7 30 Сообщений 23
Nothing is pure random. Absolutely nothing. Given enough data anything can be calculated. Even things that appear random.

if it's programmed to be random. its still not "random" in the true sense of the word.
The code has a % chance based on various factors. 

If you randomize 1 to 100. with no other factors.. its a 1% chance. 
Now with each occurrence being independent of the other it would be calculated like so...
1-(chance to fail/100)^number of attempts = % chance of a given outcome.

For example you want to do experimental 20.
I'll do it roughly.. as i don't particularly care to devote the extra brain power to do the true solution.
 
100% → 100% → 100% → 100% → 98% → 96% → 94% → 92% → 90% → 88% → 86% → 84% → 82% → 80% → 78% → 76% → 74% → 72% → 70% → 68%
 We will multiply each of these % values together getting a result of... 4.5909135%


1 - 4.5909135% = 0.954090865

now lets say we are willing to do 20 attempts. going from level 4 -> 20 (starting at level 4 as 0-4 is 100%)
 
 
1-(0.954090865)^20 = 60.9% chance that 1 of the 20 attempts will succeed in reaching level 20. 

yes i understand that each individual attempt at a given level is an individual independent event... so you could get into being more precise with the calculation... but this is just quick simple math. 
 
6 Июля 2017 13:40:16
6 Июля 2017 13:40:16

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